China's Arab Spring Headache.

For the past four years, the Middle East has been dealing with a phenomenon that is called the Arab Spring. China, as one of the last remaining party dominated nations in the world, has been watching it carefully. The Communist party fears that the unrest that has sprung up in Libya, Syria, and Egypt could spread into their country. With what has been going on within these countries, the current governing style that China has could back fire. To counteract this, the government has restricted internet access, and attempted to ignore anything news related about the Arab Spring. It is unsure how long this practice will last before it blows up in 
China’s face. They have also taken a wait-and-see approach with Syria and Libya.

1. Syria’s and China’s relationship
It’s clear that what Syria export is not a concern of China. One of their biggest worries is that their civil war will spill across all of the Middle East. As Shannon Tiezze from The Diplomat describes it, “Violence from Syria, which is largely based along the Sunni-Shi’ite schism, has already spilled over

Out of all the three Arab countries, Syria does not have strongest economic ties with China. “China-Syria trade was worth $1.2billion, a 50 percent decrease over 2011 rates.

Chinese exports to Syria accounted for $1.1 billion dollars” (The Diplomat).

East” (The Diplomat). Though the conflict going is a concern of Chinas’, from an economic standpoint they are more concerned with how this will affect their more important trading into Lebanon and Iraq. Further escalation could begin to disrupt trade within the region as a whole, a potential disaster for China given that over half of its oil imports come from the Middle

partners.

http://media.caglecartoons.com/media/cartoons/34/2012/06/06/113073_600.jpg

China does not want intervene with Syria’s internal problems. Their stance on the issue

has stalemated talks and has caused aid to Syria’s refugees to stagnate. They learned their

lesson with Libya, where they decided to abstain from the decision. According to Holly from CNN who interviewed Yun Sun, “Rather than siding with either Assad or the opposition and standing aside to 'wait and see,' Beijing is actively betting on both” (CNN). It’s not the best approach to a situation, but it allows China to have the escape of not being on the losing side of the issue, but it has the potential to make them appear indecisive.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/29/world/meast/syria-iran-china-russia-supporters/

2.

Libya and China Relationship
Though China has had its issues with the government of Libya, Gaddafi gave them most of their headaches. With the new interim government, both parties are hoping to forget their past dealings and focus on the future. Though Libya had not been a key economic partner before the Arab Spring, China did receive a large portion of their oil from the country. “China consumed 11 percent of Libya’s oil exports. It’s also Tripoli’s second largest supplier after its colonial patron Italy, accounting for 10.54 percent of Libyan imports in 2009. China also has significant business interests in Libya, ranging from railway projects to automobile sales” (Sotloff). The oil of Libya is the only thing China has any real interest in. With the events of the Arab Spring, China worries that, because they hesitated to aid the rebels, the interim government might not be as giving as Gaddafi had been with them.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/74389496-simpfendorfer-on-libya-s-relations-with-china.html

China's decision process with Syria is because of the mistakes the government made with Libya. The Chinese government’s decision not to back the rebels hurt their relationship with the new interim Libyan government. “China was reluctant to support the Libyan rebels and abstained from a security council resolution authorizing “all necessary measures” to protect civilians”(Sotloff). Because of that decision economic ties between China and Libya are strained. Though relations between the two countries have never been calm to begin with. “Tripoli served ties in 1980 with Beijing supplied weapons to neighboring Egypt, with whom Libya had a short border war with in 1977”(Scotloff). Two years before the Arab Spring, a Chinese oil company purchased a significant share of a Canadian oil company. But Libya’s government blocked the deal and forced the Canadian company to sell their shares to Libya’s “Now that Gaddafi has lost control, China will accept whatever new order emerges in his place” (Higgins). state owned oil company. These examples show that China’s reluctance to aid the rebels may have been because of these events. 

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3. Egypt and China
Unlike Syria and Libya, China does not have an economic interest in Egypt. Instead, they are interested in the events going on within Egypt. The government fears that Arab Spring will spread across the Middle East and into mainland China.
“ (Pollack). The event of the Arab Spring in Egypt has China terrified, and has them rethinking their policies within the Middle East and other countries. The reason Egypt could lead to a China spring is because of the way it happened. Though China’s government has complete control of the internet, and any attempt of political discourse is obliterated, the government fears the potential of the youth. The Egyptian youth, not the adults, were the ones that brought Mubarak’s regime down to its knees and forced the president to step down. 
http://live.wsj.com/video/with-morsi-gone-china-loses-key-ally-in-egypt/0B72C7B5- CBE3-47D9-B7BC-C2BBD6309985.html#!0B72C7B5-CBE3-47D9-B7BC- C2BBD6309985

The way the Arab Spring brought Egypt’s decade old regime down could be a precursor on how the youth of China could rise up. To solve that problem the regime has “
control of public mass gatherings and protests. Search terms such as “Jasmine” or

have been compelled to reexamine their policies to protect their interests where it can

“They while limiting the damage wherever possible

resorted to numerous measures, including tighter Internet monitoring and censorship -- especially the use of social media -- and more-vigilant surveillance and “Egypt” have been intermittently blocked or altogether banned on the Chinese

Internet” (Yaun). It remains to be seen, however, if this action is just preventing the inevitable uprising. Unlike in Egypt and some of the other spring affected countries, “Beijing retains total control over the military, the paramilitary and the police forces, on whose loyalty it can count:(Yaun). If an Arab Spring like event would happen in China,

the protesters would not have any support from the military and would be on their own.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVNHK1TgFQ8

China has every right to be afraid of the events that have happened in Libya, Syria and Egypt. Although it would be a monumental task for the citizens of China to achieve such a goal like the citizens of the Arab Spring managed. Their gamble to wait and see with Syria has the potential to backfire and blow up in their government’s face and put a strain on their relationship in the future. The possible reluctance of the interim government in Libya to be open to China about trade, because they did not wish to help the rebels topple Gaddafi’s regime could also pose a problem.. Though China’s government does have a firm grasp on social media and their own military, time can only tell how much longer this will deter its youth from rising up.