This post is due by Tuesday, April 8 @ midnight for full credit.
Email late posts to rwilliamsATchamplain.edu for partial credit.
Read the assigned chapters above, and then:
1. Provide 3 SPECIFIC observations about the Arab Spring you learned from EACH chapter of our book, using 2-3 sentences combining the book and your own IYOW analysis.
2. Finally, ask ONE specific question you have of the Arab Spring after completing our reading.
Chapter 8:
ReplyDelete- Yemen is reckoned to be the most heavily armed country in the world second to the United States. It may not seem that way as it is much more common to see someone walking around with an AK47 on their shoulder I’d say in Yemen than in America. The book then argues Libya in 2011 may have taken the lead in that category.
- The total direct cost of the Sa’ada wars was estimated at 1 Billion dollars. It is said that Yemen will run out of oil by 2020. Oil is the source of about three quarters of Yemen’s Governments revenue and 90% of their exports. This is one reason why they are a weak state.
- Most highly profiled person in Yemen was Anwar-al-Awlaki. He has been said to inspire Nidal Hussein, a US Army official, to shoot 13 people dead at Fort Hood in Texas, as well as Faisal Shahzad the pakistani who planned a failed car bombing in Times Square. On September 2011 when a US drone killed him it was more important to the US government than to the people of Yemen.
Chapter 9:
- January 2013, the UN published a death toll saying 60,000 people had died in Syria since the uprising in 2011. It was estimated that 100,000 will die if the uprisings continue. Thats a lof of people for such a small country.
-How will Syria deal with the demands of the Kurdish groups in the North-East who had increasingly been running their own affairs as a power in the central state. A resurgence of the Kurdish people could lead Turkey to some serious trouble. This is a big question the book poses as Syria is struggling with the threat of religious rule which does not encompass everyone.
- A change in Damascus could have vast changes amongst the Arab World. Altering power in Iran and Saudi Arabia, Bring peace to Israel and Lebanon, all with a few changes. There are many possibilities it is just funny that such a small country has such great influence in the Arab World.
Question: What is the best option for Syria? Will Yemen find a different way to boost their economy when all the oil is gone?
Chapter 8:
ReplyDelete1. About a third of the country’s groundwater is guzzled by a single crop, qat, whose narcotic, chewable leaves have contributed in no small way to Yemen’s woes. A depressingly large proportion of household income is set aside for daily purchases of the plant (199). I wonder if Yemen would be a lot better off if the country wasn’t so dependent on qat.
2. The divide between Northern and Southern Yemen made for a chaotic separation between the country that involves different beliefs and ideals. The tribal power in the north had distracted and divided strength of government military forces, weakening the state’s already precarious control over many areas of the country (205).
3. Attempting to curb the role of qat, will be complicated by the fact that it provides the main source of income for 14 percent of the population. Trying to ban it would be not only disastrously unpopular and impossible to enforce, but it would also put thousands out of work (213). The new government trying to reform the country is going to have their hands full with what seems like impossible decisions.
Chapter 9:
1. At first it seemed as if there might not be an Arab Spring in Syria (226). It is interesting to think that Syria is one of our “Surprised” countries, and has been the most bloodiest by leaving over one hundred thousand people dead.
2. Many members of the classes that dominated the structures of state and social power were secretly funneling cash to Assad’s opponents (231). The wealthy want peace, order, and freedom of economic activity by any means necessary.
3. More likely was a scenario in which regional powers like Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Iran, or Saudi Arabia decided to arm and supply proxies in Syria (238). This should lead to an interesting situation seeing who is defending the Syrian government and who is defending the Syrian government opposition.
Question: Is there any possible solution that will make the whole country of Yemen happy?
Chapter 8: Disintegrating Yemen
ReplyDelete1. Demand for an overhaul of the political system led to unrest in Yemen. It was also caused by and inspiration from Egypt and Tunisia. It also brought the disintegration.
2. Yemeni president had lost his family and political support when the demonstration began. This was a ground for failed leadership. He had no place to cling but to surrender.
3. The United Nations Security Council issued a resolution on 21st October urging Saleh to accept the GCC terms under which he was to step down. As a result, the power transfer in Yemen led to infighting. It was among the interest groups as they had varied goals. This delayed progress of the new administration.
Chapter 9: The struggle for Syria
1. The constitution also noted that Syria would become a planned economy of socialists that would enshrine the round of nationalization that the 1963 Ba’athist coup came before.
2. The inability of Hafez al-Assad to strike a balance between Baathism and Islam contributed in the uprising. Imbalance of minorities and majority Sunni had a big impact in the uprising. They created unforeseen forces.
3. There was a power struggle in the Syria administration. It weakened the government to the rebels. It also laid ground for failing. Bashar allies did not welcome father to son leadership. They needed participatory leadership. The president wanted hereditary governance. Bashar was amongst the new generations of Arab leaders that at the turn off the millennium had assumed power. Also, Deepening of the conflict drew Israel and other foreign interests whereas Damascus cultivated numerous Lebanese allies.
What are reasons for the sectarian divisions in Syria? What would happen if Assad stepped down?
Chapter 8:
ReplyDelete1. The lack of control of the Yemeni government over the civilians is terrifying. Despite government efforts was “not so rare to see men carrying AK47s slung over their backs, despite government efforts...” (195). This lack of a strong government is what lets these conflicts in Yemen occur.
2. In Yemen there is extreme brutality against protesters who try and remove Saleh from power. Where there were “between 9 and 18 people killed in the south and many others disappeared..” (202). This ability for violence by the government sets in a more permanent rule and results in corruption.
3. The dependence of Yemenis on qat is similar to the dependence of China on opium back in the 1800’s. It leaves Yemen open and vulnerable and makes economic reformation almost impossible. It would create high amounts of unemployment and cause more riots and protest in result if it were attempted to be banned. (213)
Chapter 9:
1. There is immense corruption in Syria like in Yemen where the army is controlled by a rebel colonel. The ranks are filled with defected soldiers and smuggled weapons. The high concentration of army and armed men results in the high amount of violence in Syria. (215)
2. It is not too surprising with such internal conflicts and violence that many have been killed in Syria. Although it is disgusting how much blood shed goes on there were thousands upon thousands of people have lost their lives. It is also tragic how the violence continues and the problems persist. (226)
3. There is great uncertainty of support in Syria where many people change sides constantly. It is odd to think about that people you have been fighting with may have changed sides and be against you. Some changed sides when they lost faith in Bashar. (229)
Is there a possible solution to the conflicts in Yemen and Syria that will leave everyone happy and stop the bloodshed?
Chapter 8
ReplyDelete1.”Behind the façade of democratic institutions, political parties and elections lies a complex system of tribal, religious and regional affiliations that have long prevented the emergence of a strong state.” This is a shame since Yeman is one of the only Middle Eastern nations holding meaningful elections. (195)
2. A third of the countries water is guzzled by qat, a plant with no nutritional benefit and acts as a narcotic. Furthermore, “A depressingly large proportion of household income is set aside for daily purchase of the plant.” If resources and income was diverted from this plant to a benefital crop than the state may have a greater agricultural economy. (198)
3. “There is no external mediator for Yeman’s many conflicts. It took ten months of pressure to persuade Saleh to hand over power, a feat which may prove far easier than negotiating an end to the array of armed quarrels ‘around the country’”. While this may seem grim, I feel that it can be seen as a good thing; The united states didn’t have an external mediator when drafting the constitution or during the civil war and I feel it turned out for the better.
Chapter 9
1. The Ba’ath party who formed with a goal of ridding Arab lands of foreign interference gain popularity with minorities in the country. “The Ba’ath party’s secularizing ideas were particularly appealing to these minority communities, who risked being treated as second class citizens in any conservative, Sunni-dominated state.” (215)
2. “If authorities had adopted a similarly non-confrontational approach a month later in the town of Deraa, then perhaps the Arab Spring might have turned out differently for Bashar.” (226)
3. “Instead, a situation had developed in which a blurred mix of governments, groups and even wealthy individuals from contries like Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Qatar or Saudi Arabia were arming and supplying their respective proxies in Syria.” (238)
Question?
Is it better or worse for states with uprisings to receive aid from other countries?
Chapter 8
ReplyDelete1.It's surprising to see how the military interacts with the civilian population. Their jets are pretty seriously outdated.
2.Yemen is the only country in the middle east that allows political parties? What?! I was hoping there would be more.
3.Yemen has been split in two since the 19th century. Yet it still acts as one unified country in our eyes.
Chapter 9
1. A rebel colonel amassed a 15,000 man army of former soldiers and stormed an air force intelligence building. He took advantage of the confusion present in the beginning of the Arab spring to mount attacks and establish power.
2. Bashir al assad gained power by accident. The next person in line to become the ruler died in a car accident in the mid nineties which caused Bashir to have to come home from london and become groomed to be the new leader. It took 6 years for his father to convince everyone it was a good idea though.p218
3. Syria scored a 173/178 on the total freedom scale in 2010. This is an embarrassingly low score to have. Reporters without borders did the survey.
Question: do you think there should be a league of arab nations that helps unify their currencies and economies to improve trade relations and help encourage more free choices in the arab world?
DeleteChapter 8
ReplyDelete- Yemen is reckoned to be the most heavily armed country in the world second to the United States. It may not seem that way as it is much more common to see someone walking around with an AK47 on their shoulder I’d say in Yemen than in America. The book then argues Libya in 2011 may have taken the lead in that category
-“There is no external mediator for Yeman’s many conflicts. It took ten months of pressure to persuade Saleh to hand over power, a feat which may prove far easier than negotiating an end to the array of armed quarrels ‘around the country’”. While this may seem grim, I feel that it can be seen as a good thing; The united states didn’t have an external mediator when drafting the constitution or during the civil war and I feel it turned out for the better.
- The divide between Northern and Southern Yemen made for a chaotic separation between the country that involves different beliefs and ideals. The tribal power in the north had distracted and divided strength of government military forces, weakening the state’s already precarious control over many areas of the country.
Chapter 9
- Many members of the classes that dominated the structures of state and social power were secretly funneling cash to Assad’s opponents (231). The wealthy want peace, order, and freedom of economic activity by any means necessary.
- “Instead, a situation had developed in which a blurred mix of governments, groups and even wealthy individuals from countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Qatar or Saudi Arabia were arming and supplying their respective proxies in Syria.”
-The inability of Hafez al-Assad to strike a balance between Baathism and Islam contributed in the uprising. Imbalance of minorities and majority Sunni had a big impact in the uprising. They created unforeseen forces.
Chapter 8
ReplyDelete1. Yemen has consistently been a divided country. Different military units in Yemen, Ahmed Ali who was head of the Republican Guard and Saleh’s oldest son and General Ali Mohisn al-Ahmar, have experienced much conflict. There have been rumors that Saleh took measures to weaken Mohisn’s military units along with supplying Saudi military with bombing coordinates over Moshin’s headquarters. (198)
2. Similar to situations in other Arab countries, a turning point in the Yemen revolution resulted from extreme violence against protestors. On March 18 in 2011, about fifty-four demonstrators were killed by snipers. About 150,000 people rallied resulting in a wave of resignations. Workers no longer wanted to be associated with the regime. (202)
3. Saleh accepted a proposal issued by the UN Security Council asking him to step down that October. The agreement was an ideal way for him to hand over power. He kept the title of president and handed own his power to his deputy who would later be the only candidate in 2012 elections. Saleh and his family were also given immunity from any future prosecutions. As the book states, he definitely “secured by far the most favorable exit strategy of any Arab leader forced to relinquish power in 2011.” (209-210)
Chapter 9
1. After Bashar al-Assad adopted leadership from his father, he adopted a “Chinese Model that sought economic liberalization without eroding the regime’s monopoly of power” (219). Also after Hafez al-Assad died, banks and insurance companies began to reopen. The streets of Damascus began to change as well, appearing newer and more appealing. Larger amounts of tourists visited the country, increasing 40% from 2009 to 2010. (220)
2. Bashar’s family retained great power in Syria, similarly to other Middle Eastern leaders. His mother took advantage of her political status for profitable use. His cousin Rami Makhlouf had control over ports and border crossings, oil concessions, the Real Estate Bank, and other things. He was labelled as a “facilitator of state corruption.” (221)
3. Assad strategically kept ties with many natures, not keeping any as allies or enemies. He was able to keep ties with Iran, Europe, Israel, Palestine, and Washington. His foreign policy was described as “at a crossroads.” (223)
How can Yemen come out of their poverty as the poorest Arab nation?
Ch 8
ReplyDelete1. About 1/3 of the country’s groundwater is used growing a single crop, qat, this crop is also a high cause in the countries woes. Yemen being a country with one of the world’s lowest income a depressingly large amount of the household’s income is spent purchasing this plant. 72% of men and 33% of women are regular uses of this narcotic plant. This plant is also blamed for why Yemen is ranked 133/169 by the UN for development within the country, with 1/3 of the population being illiterate and 1/5 living on less than $1.25/day this plant has only worsened situations for Yemen (Warren 199-200).
2. With the tribal power struggle in the north this distracted and divided the strength of government military forces, weakening the state’s already precarious control over many other areas of the country. Because of split issues within the government this caused the state to have much more of a struggle dealing with revolts and many analysts believed that the Arab Spring could trigger the disintegration of the country (Warren 206). ‘
3. The biggest losers of this revolution will be the silent majority of Yemenis who are far more concerned with finding the money for their next meal, or defending their land, than about reforming central political structures. Already living in an under impoverished, weak state that was unable to even provide basic infrastructure, by the end of 2011, life had only become more difficult for the average citizen.
Ch 9
1. The Assad regime has been in power since 1971, and in 2000 when Bashar Assad took power, Bashar was never meant to be the ruler of Syria but in 1994 when his older brother died in a car crash Bashar returned to Syria and his father convinced his own generation of senior party members and military officials that Bashar was their best option for President (Warren 220).
2. The biggest difference between Hafez Al-assad and Bashar Al-Assad is that Hafez used money for political purposes while Bashar used politics to make money. And this combination only leads to disaster, and while the Sunni urban business families and the Alawite elite were reaping the fruits of economic liberalization, others ploughed less fertile soils. While his father grew up in very impoverished land Bashar did not while led to a disconnect to the countryside and was very apparent by 2011 when the protests erupted (Warren 223).
3. Deraa was the torch that set light to uprisings in other provinces, as people across the country took to the streets and solidarity with those in the southern border town. In most cases, the same destructive pattern of escalation occurred. By late spring, there were regular protests and clashes in provincial towns like Deir ez-Zour, idlib and Baniyas, but also in major cities. During march so many journalists were arrested that truths about the revolution were very hard to come by (Warren 228).
Question Ch 8-9
ReplyDeleteIf Bashar's older brother had not been killed in the accident 20 years ago, how differently would this all have played out? Would Syria have had an Arab Spring at all?
Shukran, colleagues - good reflections here!
ReplyDeleteYalla,
W
Chapter 8
ReplyDelete"Outside the cities, in the north of the country, it was not so rare to see men carrying AK47s slung over their backs, despite government efforts to stop guns being so openly carried out in public" (P.195) Personally, I would not be ok with anyone carrying out guns in the open at all.
"Yemen has long been Arabia's anomaly. It is the only country on the peninsula to hold meaningful elections, however dysfunctional they might be, and the only one to permit political parties". (P.196) What is the point of allowing elections and multiple parties if they are going to end up influence with corruption.
"Yemen is a place that has always existed more as a concept than as a state. Its forbidding but beautiful landscapes, its mountains and deserts, highlands and lowlands". (197) Most of the Arab countries have beautiful landscapes but because of militia groups and other problems it makes tourism difficult and have other people appreciate the beauty.
Chapter 9
"With serious political reform seemingly off the agenda, Assad adopted a "Chinese model" that sought to allow economic liberalization without eroding the regime's monopoly on power" (220) It's interesting to see that Assad try to adopt Chinese ways of ruling but were enforced wrong.
"The big difference between Hafez al-Assad and Bashar al-Assad is that Hafez used money for political purposes, but Bashar al-Assad uses politics to make money". (223) It's interesting to see how people act differently when they have political power, some use it for good, while others not so much.
"Meanwhile, diplomats or analysts of Syria's foreign policy perennially described it as being "at a crossroads", which was precisely the perception that its president wished to nurture".(224)
Question: What would happen if Yemen didn't have any oil?
Ch 8
ReplyDelete1. “Yemen has long been Arabia’s anomaly. It is the only country on the peninsula to hold meaningful elections, however dysfunctional they might be and the only one to permit political parties….Behind the façade of democratic institutions, political parties and elections lies a complex system of tribal, religious and regional affiliations that have long prevented the emergence of a strong state.” (195).
2. Like many of the other Arab Spring countries, Yemen was influenced by the revolutions that sparked in Tunisia and Egypt. Tunisia’s revolution got young Yemeni citizens to hold licensed rallies. However, it was when Mubarak stepped down that Yemen held more organic, spontaneous revolutions like Tunisia and Egypt had (200).
3. Unlike other rulers of Arab Spring countries, Saleh had a favorable exit strategy. Saleh and his family were granted immunity from any future prosecution. He was even able to maintain the title of president, even though he had no true power (209).
Ch 9
1. “More was at stake in Syria than in any other country touched by the Arab Spring, a fact that mitigated both against the outbreak of protest and against a peaceful or speedy resolution once demonstrations had begun. A country of 24 million people located right at the sensitive heart of the Middle East, Syria borders Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Iraq and what happens in Damascus has long rippled far and wide.” It’s interesting to read this and know that Syria is still in a civil war today (215).
2. At first it seemed like Syria wasn’t going to experience an Arab Spring like other Middle Eastern countries. Syrians watching the revolutions from their TVs instead of out on the streets protesting. That is until a man was beat by traffic police and 1,500 people gathered in the street (225-226).
3. “Syria is still fighting the first round of a battle that Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya completed in 2011. That round that has now gone on for so long, with so much already lost and so much still at stake, that Assad’s departure will not provide closure by simply open a new chapter. Far more so that elsewhere in the region, that new chapter has the potential to resolve or exacerbate wider issues and to redraw the physical and political map of the Middle East.” (240).
Question: Is what happened in Syria really part of the Arab Spring or just a coincidental civil war breaking out at the where other countries had more peaceful revolutions?
Chapter 8
ReplyDelete1.) After doing my multi-media research paper, the paragraph starting with “If the removal of authoritarian leaders in Libya…and ending in “and the picture gets even bleaker” – it is no surprise, given the amount of corruption Yemen faces on a daily basis. (page 196)
2.) “Nor was the oil the only commodity in short supply. Yemen’s annual renewable water supplies per capita are barely more than 10 per cent of the Middle East and North Africa average, with its groundwater supplies being rapidly depleted by a 24 million-strong population that is easily the quickest-growing in the region. The state has lacked the resources and the authority to manage its water resources, failing to prevent illegal wells, mass wastage and inefficient forms of irrigation that are drying up stocks at an alarming rate. Resources scarcity has also incurred a sizeable human cost, one study estimated that armed disputes over land and water killed 4,000 Yemenis each year (page 199) – This was interesting to red because I didn’t read about this in my research, and now that I am reading it, it makes sense, due to the amount of poverty, and the size and ferocity of the military.
3.) I didn’t realize that the tribal struggle, discussed on page 205, was so intense as to “divide the strength of the military forces weakening the state’s already precarious control over many other areas of the country. (page 205) – this must have been an issue since the divide, right before Saleh came to power, which would mean, he kind of had the upper hand, being seen as someone who could bring them together.
Chapter 9
1.) The last paragraph on page 216 continuing onto page 217, illustrate the effect Syria had on the surrounding countries and what each president did. But it then said, “The clues to why Bashar al-Assasd was still in power by early 2012 lie in the make-up of the country which he inherited from his father and in its place at the nexus of the Middle East’s most intractable conflicts” (page 217) – this was cool to read about because it says that the path towards an outing of the president, like what happened in other Arab countries would be longer, and more intense.
2.) “Yet the Arab Spring had clearly changed the atmosphere. When a man was reportedly insulted and beaten by traffic police near Damascus’s ancient roofed market of Souk al-Hamidiyah on 17 February, an angry crowd of 1,500 people gathered.” (page 227) – this just shows the huge influence that people have on each other. When one person or a few people step up to do something, others, who were more timid at first, join and it becomes stronger and stronger…basically the whole of the Arab Spring.
3.) “Most of Syria’s air force pilots were Sunni, for instance, but the air defense force which controlled logistics and communications is mainly Alawite, preventing the pilots form making a play for power” (page 230) – this is a recipe for disaster and conflict on a dangerous level, taking into consideration that they are attempting to protect a country.
Chapter 8
ReplyDelete1.) Yemen has long been Arabia's anomaly. It is the only country on the peninsula to hold meaningful elections, however dysfunctional they might be, and the only one to permit political parties.
2.) The tribal power struggle in the north had distracted and divided the strength of government military forces, weakening the state's already precarious control over many other areas of the country. While the Ahmars and the Salehs fought each other in the suburbs of Sana'a, the breakdown in law and order elsewhere persuaded a number of other powerful groups that now was the time to play their hand.
3.) Many could neither read or write, let alone access a computer or use Twitter. They wanted things to change, but suffocated under inflation that meant food and fuel prices were sometimes double what they were a year earlier. The economy, already barely functional, had collapsed further amid the unrest.
Chapter 9
1.) Less than a decade after taking power, Assad faced what would be the regime's greatest domestic challenge prior to 2011. The secular tenets of Ba'athism were anathema to Syria's Muslim Brothers, whose early leaders were inspired by the eponymous Egyptian group and who were a rising political force in the post-independent years.
2.) At first it seemed as if there might be no Arab Spring in Syria, let alone a battle for its aftermath. Within days and even hours of Mubarak's departure on 11 February, the ongoing protests in Libya, Yemen, and Bahrain shifted up a gear. Syria, by comparison, seemed quiet.
3.) In January 2013, the UN published a bleak new death toll which estimated that 60,000 people had been killed in Syria since the beginning of the uprising in March 2011 - far more than previously thought.