This post is due by Tuesday, April 22 @ midnight for full credit.
Email late posts to rwilliamsATchamplain.edu for partial credit.
Read the assigned chapters above, and then:
1. Provide 3 SPECIFIC observations about the Arab Spring you learned from EACH chapter of our book, using 2-3 sentences combining the book and your own IYOW analysis.
2. Finally, ask ONE specific question you have of the Arab Spring after completing our reading.
Chapter 12:
ReplyDelete1. In Tunisia, considered to be one of the region’s more private sector-heavy economies, some 97 percent of all private companies had less than six employees in 2010 (288). This brings about the issue that most of the wealth stays in a few individuals hands and there is not an abundant of job opportunities.
2. So while the role of the United States has clearly faded, none of the new poles in the multi-polar world have yet shown the authority, credibility, or willingness to play a leadership role in the Middle East (295). It seems like Arab countries need to look internally for solutions to their dilemmas. What model they basis this off of is up in the air.
3. If democracy does take firm root in the Middle East, it will naturally bear the imprint of local circumstances (298). The Arab world could take on many different forms of democracy depending on what country tries to implement a democratic system. It will be interesting to see if democratic systems can develop from the previous systems that were in place for so many years.
Epilogue:
1. Tunisia unemployment was even higher than before and prices had risen even quicker than in 2010 (301). For having the smoothest transition out of the Arab Spring it still seems that Tunisia the grievances that cause the uprisings are still an issue.
2. The initial surge in early 2011 was not about religion but was an expression of anger over the elite corruption, economic inequalities, widespread injustice, and geriatric leaders who were out of touch with reality (304). Islamist groups have been around for a long time and are more established which has allowed them to be the most successful thus far in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.
3. “For the people of the region, forced for so long to live out a pretense at stability, hopeless that they could change their world or shape its future, that is the biggest prize of all” (307). I wonder how long it will take for the Arab countries to become stable or if they will ever achieve stability.
Question: Will Arab countries be successful by using internal reformation or will they need assistance from Western countries on how to develop their systems?
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ReplyDeleteChapter 12: Embracing the void:
ReplyDelete1. The Arab nations are organizing their affairs without the support from the west. They had relied on one another before. Their relationships have changed.
2. The Arab nations see their economic problem to be caused by the western world. This is because of the influence they put. They believe west was behind the uprising.
3. The Arabs uprising have reduced the economic growth in these regions. Some have become bankrupt. It requires intervention to change the situation. Arab importers including the most enthusiastic ones of the socialist doctrine seemed to reluctantly have accepted that they might get it wrong.
Epilogue:
1. Egyptians had moved Hosni Mubarak during elections by voting more meaningfully during elections yet after one year the military still had power at hands. Also, nothing much has changed in Tunisia following the uprising as the employment rate is on the rise. Employment and other social problems still present. It will take them time to realize change.
2. The Arab spring course was not just determined by different pre-existing conditions in most countries but by various governmental reactions. Most of the Arab nations are now polarized than before following the uprising. The uprising destabilized the working systems. More is needed to normalize the situation.
3. Some parallels that have been drawn in revolutions have brought down the Berlin wall. It will take more years for Arab world to realize change .There is need for immediate policy formulation. This will aid in reconstructing the nations.
The Question is that what was the driving force behind revolution if the people/protestants cannot realize their goals/changes they demanded up to this time?
Chapter 12:
ReplyDelete1. “High-level corruption and the blurred lines between private interests and the government gave big business a bad name.” (Page 286) So who is to really blame. The rich will only get richer and the poor will only get poorer.
2. “The US congress failed to include in its 2011 budget the two aid programmes for Tunisia and Egypt.” (page 287) “Those who did not have the luxury of oil and gas, would have to look elsewhere for support.” (page 288) We might have been told that the U.S. didn’t support these two countries in fear of the regimes that may emerge but really it is about oil.
3. Syria, has been a purgatory state of no peace no war with Israel since 1974. Syria is in no military position to fight with Israel and whoever comes to power may be more willing to negotiate with Israel. Anything is possible but it is only going to get worse before it gets better.
Afterword:
1. You cannot change fifty of dictatorship in only 12 months. This was said by Mocef Marzouki as he was getting booed off the stage, although the does make a point. These people are trying to get this done as fast as possible they want out but it will take time.
2. The phrase Arab Spring refers to the seeds of change that have been growing underground long before shooting up in 2011. This was only bound to happen. You plant a seed you expect something to grow.
3. This revolution marks a end to an era in the Middle East. With many changes still to come and it will take a while this marks a new beginning for a region otherwise oppressed and not under much hope. It will be interesting to see the years to come what will happen in these countries.
Question: Who will get these countries steering on the right path?
Ch 12
ReplyDelete1. The Western economic crisis in the mid 2000s triggered shrinking of the world economy the most since the end of World War II. This made Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, and Egypt’s most pressing challenge to improve living conditions for their citizens. Governments had to face decisions about whether to raise subsidies and salaries that could potentially topple the economy or watch their citizens take to the streets (285).
2. “In 2009, for the first time ever, China bought more Saudi Arabian oil than the United States. Over the first decade of the new millennium, Saudi exports to China had risen by more than 21 times, while its imports from China had increased more than tenfold. By 2010 Saudi Arabia was supplying about a quarter of Chinese and Indian oil imports, but sent just 16 percent of its crude to the United States imported from Saudi Arabia—its key strategic partner in the region—had fallen by more than a third in 2009 as the world’s biggest economy struggled under the recession and financial crisis. The global economy’s centre of gravity was shifting.” (291).
3. “If democracy does take firm root in the Middle East, it will naturally bear the imprint of local circumstances….In every case it will take years, and possibly another round of uprisings, for the dust to settle.” The democracies in the Arab Spring countries will continue to be influenced by their illustrious past and that doesn’t have to be a bad thing (296).
Epilogue
1. The Arab Spring was not an awakening because the citizens in the region were not asleep. Arab-language satellite TV, mobile phones, and the Internet revolutionized media and communication a decade before the Arab Spring sparked. These new media exposed citizens of the region to experiences that they weren’t aware of and let them share their thoughts to others (300).
2. “The Arab Spring was not an Islamic Spring. The initial surge in early 2011 was not about religion but was an expression of anger over elite corruption, economic inequalities, widespread injustice and geriatric leader who were out of touch with reality. Yet by early 2012 Islamist-oriented parties has exploited those early revolutionary gains to emerge triumphant from elections in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco. They will play a major role in the future Syria, where they were crushed by Bashar al-Assad’s father, and they are one of the most powerful force in the new Libya. In virtually every country that underwent significant change in 2011, Islamists have undoubtedly been the biggest winners at the ballot box.” (302).
3. “This new era will not be peaceful or pretty. There will be winners and losers, revolutionaries and counter-revolutionaries, bloodshed and truces, hope and despair. There may be war and another round of revolts before the dust settles in certain countries, and many in the region will privately wish that 2011 had never happened at all. The gusts of the Arab Spring have blown in new uncertainties to replace the certainties of old. In this news climate, anything now seems possible. For the people of the region, forced for os long to live out a pretense at stability, hopeless that they could change their world or shape its future, that is the biggest prize of all.” (305).
Questions: How many revolutions will take place as a result of the instability that the Arab Spring created in multiple Arab nations?
Chapter 12:
ReplyDelete1. There is high unemployment in these areas as 97% of all private companies have less than 6 employees. This is not a large amount and to employ a large population it is very difficult. This also results in massive competition for job and hardships.
2. The uprisings have not helped this situation of economic distress too much. They have hindered the workforce and have slowed economic progress as a whole. It is said though, that sometimes to go forward you have to take a step back first.
3. In this world business is business. The United States focuses on its own economy and needs and thats why they funded the areas that have oil. They help the areas that supply them with oil.
Epilogue:
1. The media and social media had an impact on this by being a way to communicate information to those who are unaware. This sped up the process and gained more strength for the resistance. Although it didn’t play as big of a part as we all think, it was still significant.
2. In Tunisia the unemployment rates are still affected by the uprisings and internal conflict. These issues seem to be long lasting and require more changes in order to fix.
3. The changes from dictatorship will take a while. The dictators have been in place for so long that it will take a while and much effort by the citizens to reach a full change. Regardless, the future is looking rather bright.
Who will be the true role model for all of these Arab countries?
Chapter 12
ReplyDelete"Free-market reforms now carried negative associations with the old regimes. High-level corruption and the blurred lines between private interests and the government had given big business a bad name. (p.288) It's too bad that businesses had a bad reputation because if in the future they were truthful nobody will really trust them.
"In June, Egypt turned down a $3.2 billion loan from the IMF designed to help bridge the budget shortfall for that year". (289) I was honestly very impressed by Egypt not taking the money, because most people in their government are known for being very corrupt.
"There was no shortage of pledges from the international community. In May 2011 the G8 countries, plus other invitees including Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, established the "Deauville Partnership" that aimed to provide billions of dollars for countries going through what were hoped to be democratic transitions. Egypt and Tunisia were named as the first recipients". (289) I'm surprised, mostly because I believe there were no news about this. The G8 are kind of a big deal and the fact that they didn't even remotely mention about planning on giving aid to countries makes me think what in reality the G8 get done.
Afterworld
"A catastrophic financial crisis, bloody wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, towering levels of debt and a loss of morel authority had accelerated the decline of the United States and cast fresh doubts over the economic and political templates it had long tried to export". (p.300) It makes me think that was the financial crisis the real reason of the decline of the United States or was it another reason?
"Tunisia unemployment was even higher than before and prices had risen even quicker than in 2010" (p.302) For having the "most successful" arab spring, they still haven't found the way to stabilize their economy.
"This new era will not be peaceful or pretty. There will be winners and losers." (p. 305) I think this quote gives a perfect ending for the book and the blog about the Arab Spring.
Will the Arab Spring be a movement that spreads through African countries?
Chapter 12
ReplyDelete1.) “In June, Egypt turned down a $3.2 billion loan from the IMF designed to help bridge the budged shortfall for that year.” –(page 289) – It was interesting to see why they turned it down. From what I read, it was due to an activist group that supported having no more debt. So they won.
2.) So while the role of the United States has clearly faded, none of the new poles in the multi-polar world have yet shown the authority, credibility, or willingness to play a leadership role in the Middle East. Instead, Arab countries undergoing transformations ware more likely to look within the region itself for guidance. (295) – It would seem as if the US has either lost popularity, or it is in the Arab countries’ best interest to look inward.
3.) “The gradual fading of US power and the new regional picture holds serious implications for Israel, which has watched and waited to see what emerges form the fray” – (page 299) – this makes me assume that the US has a pretty strong role to play, and if their fading, and their role is really not there anymore, things might not be so good in the future.
Afterward
1.) “Much had changed in Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring and the country that had made the smoother post-uprising transition than any other, but much remained the same.” (page 301) – This doesn’t surprise me seeing just how corrupt Tunisia was. It will take some time for things to get into working order, and I cant even say back to working order because that working order hasn’t been there in decades.
2.) “The Arab Spring was not an Islamic Spring. That initial surge in early 2011 was not about religion, but was an expression of anger over elite corruption, economic inequalities, widespread injustice and geriatric leaders who were out of touch with reality” (page 304) – it was very interesting to read this because I never really thought about the Arab Spring as a whole in this way, with religion being a major focus after.
3.) The last paragraph on page 307 basically says that this new era isn’t going to be peaceful and will be filled with similar things that happened during the Arab Spring.
I wonder if it will ever get better, and if it does, how much time is it going to take, because we are dealing with issues that are so deep-rooted into a culture.
Ch 12
ReplyDelete1. The term Washington Consensus was coined in the 1980s which favored liberalization, privatization, and globalization. This theory had become the groundwork of institutions like the IMF and the stock solution in crisis-stricken countries from Eastern Europe to Asia to Latin America (Warren 285)
2. Libya, with the small population and large energy wealth, shares similar characterists with Qatar and the UAE. It may learn something from the relative successful way that those two states have distributed oil revenues to their citizens and built infrastructure. This development was squandered by the tumbling of the monarchy and will be unable to happen until the violence ends and a fair government is set in place (Warren 296).
3. Russia played a much more proactive role in the Arab spring than China, while China saw the Arab spring as an unwelcome shock which just let to more domestic crackdown for their citizens. Russia on the other hand acted as a counter weight to western influence rather than seeking a leadership role. It too, faced domestic problems, as the nascent Russian protest movement of late 2011 showed (Warren 294).
Afterworld
1. A year after the Ben Ali had fled Tunisia, rivalry protests were taking place on the newly refurbished constituent assembly building in Tunis. The two sides of the protest were arguing about the islamization of the state. On one side of the protesting a crowd called for the greater Islamization of state and society, while the other side pushed back and feared that the Islamists would exploit elections to monopolize political power and transform the new Tunisia into an undemocratic and intolerant Islamic state.
2. Rarely has revolution been more universally predicted than the Arab spring, though not necessarily for the right countries or the right dates, (Eric hobsbawm). The fact that the events of 2011 have been variously described as uprisings, revolts, revolutions, protest movements, insurrections, rebellions, insurgencies, or awakenings is partially why, for all its faults and troubling historical parrells ‘Arab spring’ gained traction as an umbrella term in both English and Arabic (Warren 302).
3.Often religion is perceived to be the main factor in the cause of the Arab Spring, in fact many other reasons come into play. Governments have been at odds on how best to tackle the economic problems, old feuds, and new battles over land have all broken out and led to unrest among the people, ultimately leading to what we have known to be, “The Arab Spring” (Warren 304-305).
When will this be over? Will all the states ever elect uncorrupt officials into government and set the countries back on track for future development?
Chapter 12
ReplyDelete1.) In the economic sphere, the so-called Washington Consensus - a loose term coined in the late 1980s that favored liberalization, privatization, and globalization - had become the theoretical underpinning of institutions like the IMF and the stock solution in crisis-stricken countries from Eastern Europe to Asia to Latin America.
2.) In 2009, for the first time ever, China bought more Saudi Arabian oil than the United States. Over the first decade of the new millennium, Saudi exports to China had risen by more than 21 times, while its imports from Chine had increased more then tenfold.
3.) Russia played a much more proactive role in the Arab spring than China, while China saw the Arab spring as an unwelcome shock which just let to more domestic crackdown for their citizens. Russia on the other hand acted as a counter weight to western influence rather than seeking a leadership role. It too, faced domestic problems, as the nascent Russian protest movement of late 2011 showed.
Afterword
1.) Like 1848, 2011 meant different things at different times in different places, and in some countries in meant very little at all. The fact that the event of that year have been variously described as uprisings, revolts, revolutions, protest movements, insurrections rebellions, insurgencies or awakenings is partly why, for all its faults and inaccurate historical parallels, "Arab Spring" gained traction as an umbrella term in both English and Arabic.
2.) The Arab Spring was not an Islamic Spring. That initial surge in early 2011 was not about religion but was an expression of anger over elite corruption, economic inequalities widespread injustice and geriatric leaders who were out of touch with reality.
3.) This new era will not be peaceful or pretty. There will be winners and losers, revolutionaries and counter-revolutionaries, bloodshed and truces, hope and despair. There may be war and another round of revolts before the dust settles in certain countries, and many in the region will privately wish that 2011 had never happened at all.